Wet week ahead for Norther India and the IGP after scrutinising heatwaves

The weather was pretty dry and unbearable hot across the many parts of India and spells of heatwaves brought the summer torment on every living being across the Northern India and the Indo Gangetic plains. East India on the hand were lucky as the region was getting back to back Nor’wester spells which cooled the region every other evening. The heat torment is about to end for a brief period as series of active back to back Western Disturbances are set to affect northern India and adjoining areas and the Indo Gangetic Plains. Lets dive deep into the synopsis and pattern!

Weather Synopsis 

 • Western Disturbance: A active western disturbance is expected to affect the parts of Northern India from the night of 23rd May. The system is rated 9/10 and has been named ‘WD-Nsar’ 

The system will be affecting the region between 23-28th May

• Cyclonic Circulation: A strong CC or a low end Low Pressure Area to form over Pakistan and adj Northern Rajasthan. This system along with the WD will pull good amount of moisture into the plains

• IGP Trough: The Indo Gangetic Trough which is a pre-monsoon and monsoon feature has started to develop in the plains. The trough will remain weak but it will enhance the instability and storm developments. The thunder patches will be moving NW-SE. This trough separates SouthWesterlies and Easterlies/SouthEasterlies in the plains

• Local Instability: The immense amount of moisture and interaction of different systems will bring alot of instability in the plains which will in developing of new thunder clouds

Weather effects (Pattern)

• Much of the action will be on the IGP trough. The thunderclouds will initiate on the trough as they do during monsoon times

• Other formations will develop over the Punjab and adjoining areas and then they will move on the plains channel 

• Some of the activities will be very intense and long lasting

• Derecho are expected to occur

• Nor’westers to initiate over the Chota Nagpur Plateau region and then they will track on their usual route 

• Stray formations to give isolated showers but they will be brief spell only spanning 10-60 minutes

Weather effects (Forecast)

(Plains)

• Rajasthan:There will be scattered tstorms and duststorm activities on 23rd May but their spread will be limited.

-Good spread activities are expected from 24th May as the trough will be activated and WD and the CC will start to gather strength and these systems to interact with eachother. As The trough directly passes over N-E-C Rajasthan, this region will see a whole day of back to back intense duststorm with wind gusts upto 50-100 km/h activities along with intense thunderstorms and heavy rains.

-Similar activities are expected to occur on 25th and 26th May however there will be a change in the pattern of occurrence of these spells from 27th and activities to weaken from 28th May as the system will move away

-North,Central and East Rajasthan will get a excellent share from this spell

• Punjab & Haryana: The trough system will remain at the border of South Haryana and Rajasthan and there will be slight oscillation of the trough. Good share of Duststorm with winds gusting upto 50-100km/h and Rainfall and thunderstorms activities for this region during the 4 day period.

-Rest of Haryana and Punjab will get localised and instability driven activities. The activities will initiate either at the trough or at the Lower NorthWestern Foothill channel of Gurdaspur and Pathankot region and then they will move down the plains while affecting Punjab-Haryana-NW UttarPradesh and Delhi

-Scattered to widespread activities and some places might miss the whole spell.

• Delhi and Ncr: Oh, The region which tends to escape even the strongest spells!

-There will be isolated varied intensity rains or drizzles from stray formations and sometimes from dissipating thunderstorms. 

-There will be dry thunderstorms and duststorm activities with winds gusting upto 30-100km/h but the rainfall and hailstorm spells will be from derecho type spells which initiate over the North Punjab. Also trough oscillation will bring some activities during this 5 day storm outlook window

-Varied intensity mostly moderate to heavy rains along with isolated hailstorms followed by Duststorm with winds gusts upto 50-100km/h or squall is expected to occur on 25th, 26th and 27th May whereas there are low chances for any major acts during 23rd and 24th May

• UttarPradesh and MadhyaPradesh: The bordering areas of these two states will get daily thunderstorms/squalls and scattered severe weather as the trough will remain at the border of these two. Other localised spells may occur in Eastern and Norther parts of MadhyaPradesh and whole UttarPradesh during this 5 day stormy weather window. Good chance for East and foothills of UttarPradesh at the end of this spell

• East India: Scattered thunderstorms or Kalbaisakhi with intense thunderstorms along with duststorm with wind gusts upto 30-100km/h and moderate to heavy rains are expected occur almost daily in this region but the spells will be covering 15-60% areas in one go

(Hills)

All the parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are expected to witness moderate to heavy rains along with some hailstorm and thunderstorms activities and severe spells at some places during next 5-6 days