Relief from ongoing Heatwave conditions in Northern India from today (18-21st April

-

 


The absence of any rainfall activity and usual heat buildup and dryness had led to heat buildup and heatwave like conditions in the many parts of the country and North India. After a tough hit and dry and annoying week we are looking forward to some scattered rainfall in the plains of Northern and Central India under the influence of a moderately-active Western Disturbance.

Weather synopsis
• Western Disturbance: A moderately - active WD in upper atmosphere with its trough dip till West-Central India. The system is rated 7/10 on the intensity scale and it is named as ‘WD-Vikral’. The system will be affecting the Indian region from the evening of 18th April till evening of 21st April

• Cyclonic Circulation: A CC to develop over the parts of Rajasthan and it will move toward East, into the plains and this will be the secondary of the WD or simply a induced CC.

• Heat factor: Due to ongoing heat and heatwaves, there is sufficient heat in the lower atmosphere to create more instability in the atmosphere and fuel some strong storms

• Instability: This system will bring instability in the atmosphere, which will bring storms and help in their development and further their intensification 

• Moisture feed: Weak-Mild moisture feed from Arabian Sea. The system will pull the moisture from Arabian Sea in the Western side of the country. Winds will become drier as the reach further into the plains. Great chances for activities in Rajasthan

Weather effects (North-NorthWest)

• Storms to initiate during afternoon into late afternoon of 18th April over parts of Western Rajasthan, SouthWest Rajasthan, Pakistan and few areas of Central Rajasthan and some rogue patches may develop over Gujarat and parts of Northern Plains. The storms which will develop over Rajasthan will be stronger. They will bring round of hailstorms, thunderstorms and some moderate to heavy isolated rains along with Duststorm (30-70 km/h). Whereas the rouge storms in the plains will be far more weaker and they may bring light rain or drizzle.

• On 19th, the dissipating clouds and high level clouds from previous day storms will persist over the plains.
New cloud to develop during late afternoon into evening hours. The development will take place over NorthEastern Rajasthan, Parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Outer Ncr. These storm to intensify by 4-5 PM and they wil move towards NCR region and Western UttarPradesh. These will bring some scattered light-moderate rain with isolated intense spells & hailstorm followed by gusty winds or duststorm (30-70km/)

• The peak of this spell will bring from early hours of 20th April. Some strong development will occur over the adjoining Pakistan and North-West Rajasthan and Punjab snd it will move East and descend down SouthEast. There will be some scattered moderate to heavy rains with hailstorm, thunderstorm and duststorm (50-100km/) over 40-70% areas of Punjab, North Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Western UttarPradesh. The chances for development of thunderstorm activity will be during 1-9am and then second phase will start during afternoon into night.

• There will be a substantial decline in spread and intensity of the activities but once again the formation will be patchy and they will develop into moderate to intense patches. Once again light to moderate rain along with heavy spells and isolated hailstorms followed by thunderstorms and duststorm (50-90km/h) is expected to occur over North-Central-East Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Ncr and Western UttarPradesh. (20-60% areas to be covered and rest to get clouding)

• By 21 April, the main WD system would have moved away from the region but the WD tail end clouds to once again bring some rainfall and thunderstorm activities over the parts of the plains and Rajasthan and North-Central India.

Weather effects (Hills)
• This Western Disturbance will be primarily Western Himalayas and Northern Plains special. Widespread rainfall activities to start from the the late evening of 18th April and they will cover more areas and there will be an increase in the intensity on 19th April but the overall activities will be scattered to widespread, covering 60-90% areas of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal and some parts of Uttarakhand. Some higher and middle reaches to even get some light to moderate snowfall. The same is expected til 21st April. 

Weather effects (Central India)
• Several factors will work onto brining some rainfall in this region. The topography and dip in westerly winds to bring the orographic lifting and this would bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms in parts of Maharashtra, Madhyapradesh and adjoining SW Rajasthan and nearby areas during next 3 days

Weather effects (Western India)
• There will be dip in westerlies and wind depth and moisture from the Arabian sea will be lifted by the Western Ghats and a weaker trough may develop over the exterior region. There will be thunderstorms in interior and ghats region. Mostly the activities will be restricted to the Valsad-Surat-Palghar region and few areas of Gujarat (10-20% areas). Rouge formation may occur over Mumbai too (5% chances)

Weather effects (East-NorthEast India)
• Effects of the WD-VIKRAL will be seem from 21st April and there will nothing special apart from some patchy thunderstorms and low chances for any Nor’wester activity 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A vigorous phase of monsoon to return after a prolong break

-
Image
  After a long period of dry and hot weather, Indo Gangetic Plains are set to witness a final round of active monsoon conditions.  Many places across the plains saw an awful monsoon in August but Pan India performance was above normal. Relief from prolong hot and humid spell is slowing setting in. Considering the parameters, 2nd half of the September look really good in terms of rains. Also a delayed monsoon withdrawal is expected  Synopsis  • Low pressure to form in the Bay of Bengal and intensify into a Depression and get embedded in the through (Shearzone) • ShearZone to form over South and adjoining Central India and move Northward  • Moderate to strong Westerlies surge  • Vortex near Mumbai-North Konkan •WD over Northern Himalayas ( likely to pull the shearzone and the embedded depression straight north, likely over Haryana-Delhi-W UttarPradesh region) 🔺No WD for next 5 days 🔺 Weather forecast and events • Westerly surge due to pull effect of the Low/Depression and vortex over N
Read more

The month of spring is beginning on a stormy note for Northern India

-
Image
  The weather has been very dry lately after a nearly winter drought due to the absence of winter rains in the region. There were weaker & less frequent active Western Disturbances which brought some rains but some of them traversed in lower latitudes as compared to their normal track. These lower latitude systems brought active spells over West, Central, and parts of Eastern India while sparing Northern India. The winter produce in the region has not been good! Now, the pattern is expected to get wet and stormy due to the active impulse of NAO coupled with favorable dynamics for the first half of the month of March. A very active Western Disturbance is set to end the dry spell with a bang across many parts of Northern India and it will bring the season’s first rainfall in many places that have been devoid of any rainfall for the past 2-3 months. Weather synopsis  •Western Disturbance: A Western Disturbance (WD) as an upper-level disturbance is present over North Pakistan and adj A
Read more

Final Coldwave of this season (26-30Jan)

-
Image
After passage of last WD, temperature are likely to fall in North India from late night of 26th Jan as flow of cold NorthWesterlies would resume across northwest India. Scroll for new update Fog update:  Moderate to Dense surface Fog will start to form after 7-8pm and it will expand overnight in Delhi, Haryana, Ghaziabad, West UttarPradesh, Punjab, parts of Rajasthan, East UttarPradesh & Madhyapradesh.  •Fog layer is expected to have fog holes in and around urban cities •Fog will start to fizzle out by 10am and will be cleared by afternoon leaving behind hazy sunshine at some places •Rural area might see upper level and surface fog throughout the day leading to cold day •Some places to observe Upper level fog  •After 26th Jan, there will be a huge reduction in fog cover as flow of moderate to strong NW'LIES would resume over North India •Some places might see moderate fog but strong winds are making conditions unfavorable for Fog formation Temperature Update: These
Read more