Good spread pre-monsoon activity over many parts of India later this week (14-22nd) Mar)

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 The weather was pretty off in the first half of the March. First, the country observed extreme heat in the month of February due to absence of winter rains and then some regions observed patchy thunderstorms and intense crop damaging hailstorms thank to 2 back to back Western Disturbances (WD) in the first few days of the month of March but weather remained really hot and humid for many places. Some places even recored (Feels like temperature) in mid 40s and few were even more than 49 but only for a short amount of time.


•The plains of North India remained mostly dry except for the parts of NorthEastern Rajasthan and areas of Gujarat and Central India.
•Places like Delhi-Haryana-UttarPradesh witnessed cool morning warm and hot days with some occasional clouding due to weak Wds and high levels cloud and failed clouds due to not enough instability in the atmosphere but few areas of Southern Delhi and Faridabad and Great Noida got luck on the day of Holi and the day after as these areas received some burst of intense rain with hailstorms. On the contrary mostly weather remained boring and hot.

•A weak WD has been affecting the parts of India from 13th March but this system was weak and only domination of High clouds were observed over many places the system to move away by 14th.

•Things are about to changes in next 2-3 days as Active Western Disturbance (WD-M4) or ‘WD-Meh’ is expected to approach the Western Himalayas and the Northern India around 16th March and this system to interact with few other system and it is likely bring good spread scattered rains and few intense spells in all sectors of India in the span of a week. All the precipitation will bring down the temperature and whole 2nd half of the March will be cooler and free of Heatwaves in Indian region. Lets know more about this much awaited weather system!

Weather synopsis 

1. Active Western Disturbance (MD-M4) or ‘WD-Meh’ is expected to reach Western Himalayas by 16th March. The system is quite active and rated 9/10 on Intensity scale. We can already see the huge cloud mass of this disturbance lingering over the Middle east but most the cloud mass will dissipate as the system nears Northern India due to insufficient instability. This happened with past 3 WDs which affected the India region in March. The systems faced lack of instability, weak instability and weaker convection at many places. Fortunately, Clouds formed over Central India and NE Rajasthan due to orographic lifting. (Orographic lifting occurs when the moist air mass hits a mountain and rises up) and somewhat level of instability at some place but this system will have good instability and every other criteria as per current analysis. The major cloud mass will once again regenerate over the India region.


2. Huge dip in the Jet stream suggest a active WD. Overall a exciting weather system!
  


•Good amount of instability in the lower atmosphere which in return will fuel the convective cloud development. Widespread instability in lower levels from later 16th and peaks from 18th March

•Many Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD)s to form over different areas. These too give rise the clouds.

•Dual Moisture feeds. One moisture feed from Arabian sea and the other from the Bay of Bengal

•Induce CC (Cyclonic Formation) due to the WD

Now lets talk about the weather forecast and events that are going to occur because of these factors!

Weather Forecast

•15th March: Weather to remain mostly dry especially in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and UttarPradesh but some isolated developments may move into the NCR zone. There will be isolated showers developing during the afternoon hours over the parts of NorthEastern Rajasthan and parts of Central India mostly due to the Orographic lifting. Parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Western Ghats and parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Kolkata and adj Odisha to get some isolated rains. 
-Instability will start building up over the parts of the country but most of the areas in North to have liner flow of wind.

-Hills: Parts of Himachal, Uttarakhand, Hilly areas of Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Himalayas to get patchy moderate rain along with some hailstorms.

•16th March: Activities to increase over the areas of Western India and once again all the places mentioned in 15th March will get some scattered shower but their spread and Intensity will increase and parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, S Haryana, Central India and adj areas may see some hailstorm and duststorm during afternoon into evening. On/off sct acts to continue throughout the day

•17th March: Chances for Delhi and Ncr, Haryana, Punjab, Parts of Western UttarPradesh, Rajasthan and areas of Central India and few areas of West Bengal, Odisha and adj areas to see some rains/Nor’wester type activities


•More Details will be give on the page and highly precise nowcasts will be on our social media handles


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