Monsoon to swing back into active mode

 


As many of you have heard about upcoming heavy rain showers in Indo Gangetic Plains due to Cyclone Noru’s remnants. Lets talk about this spell in detail and clear some rumours

Weather synopsis     
WD (Western Disturbance)
LPA (Low pressure area)
WD’s upper level trough
Double Moisture supply (From Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)

• The system will be affecting the region as an Cyclonic Circulation attached to Bay of bengal Low pressure area (BoB-14). The system will be stretched out like Monsoon trough (Monsoon trough vanishes or becomes very weak after withdrawal of SWM starts in NW)


•The system will move northwards towards North India. There, the system will interact with a Western Disturbance trough. The WD is likely to stall the LPA for 2-4 days

•When a lower level weather system interacts with an upper level weather system, alot of moisture incursion hits sleep slops like Himalayas and results in very heavy rains. Some amount of moisture it lifted over plains too. 
-High risk of Cloud burst and landslides is there, Don’t travel to Uttarakhand, Nepal foothills of UttarPradesh and adjoining hills till 10th October 

•The WD will pull the LOW and make it drift Eastwards.

Weather forecast
Under the influence of these system, very heavy rains are expected in the foothills and hills of UttarPradesh, Uttarakhand, Amroha, Bareilly, Sitapur, Balrampu and some areas of Himachal Pradesh.

Outlook for 5 Days

•3rd Oct: Weather to remains mostly clear and windy and little cool in the north. Some rains are expected in higher reaches of Jammu, Kashmir, leh. Chances of light snowfall at extremely high reaches.
- Scattered moderate to heavy rains with light rain shwoers are expected West Bengal, Kolkata, Dhanbad, Bihar, Patna, parts of Odisha. Isolated rains or tstorms in North AndraPradesh.

•4th Oct: Weather to remain windy and partly cloudy in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, most of North India where as some varying intensity rains and t-storms are expected in Central and East UttarPradesh, Parts of Mumbai & Ghats, West Bengal, AndraPradesh, Bihar, Chattishgarh and adj areas
-Some rains and snowfall in higher reaches of Jammu, Kashmir, leh and parts of Uttarakhand.

•5th Oct: Alot of places in Uttarpradesh, E-C MadhyaPradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar and adj areas are expected to receive heavy showers with thunderstorms. Severe activity likely to occur in foothils of UttarPradesh, Nepal. Whereas light showers are expected in Mumbai and adj areas. Some snowfall and rains are expected in Northern Himalayas and light rains/ cloudy skies are expected in Delhi, Ncr, Haryana and adj areas

•6th Oct: Same as 5th October. Activities to shift little more Northwards into Western UttarPradesh, N MadhyaPradesh. Activities to reach parts of NCr by late night

•7th Oct: Moderate to Heavy showers are expected to occur in parts of Western Uttarpradesh, Uttarakhand, N MadhyaPradesh. Parts of Delhi and Ncr
- Rains are likely to be Light to Moderate and scattered in nature with cold winds and thunderstorms at few places. 
- Some places in Delhi, Ncr, E Haryana, E Punjab to get varying intensity rains p, mostly light-mod with few isol Heavy spells and tstorms. Those spells will be characterised by onset of storm front then cool gusty winds then rains
-on/off light to mod showers and cloudy skies likely over Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Ghaziabad, Ncr, NE Rajasthan.
- Ncr rainfall accumulation will be between 40-140mm
-Haryana: More in eastern side and less in other parts. 5-80mm
-Punjab: 0.1 to 30 mm
-Foothills, hills, Uttarakhand 100-480mm
-Western Uttarpradesh 90-410mm
🔺 Flood and Waterlogging risk b/w 6-9 Oct
🔺 Lightning strikes 
🔺Long power outage in rural areas
🔺loss of harvest likely


⚠️ Avoid travelling to northern hills during 5-10 Oct as very heavy rains are expected with non-stop moisture incursion increase the chances of torrential rainfall in few areas.
•Landslide/mudslide and localised floods likely

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