Last widespread spell of monsoon 2022 in Gangetic Plains

 Last low pressure proved to disappoint North India as it veered off towards Northeast over central Uttarpradesh resulting in heavy rains in the foothills and again rain deficit areas remained almost dry apart from some isolated activities which were mostly light to mod in intensity and accumulation wasn’t too great. 

Another low pressure area is moving towards north but this LPA system along with the monsoon trough is affecting whole Indo Gangetic Plains. Infact good moderate to heavy showers are likely to occur at many places as the axis of monsoon trough is active and the Low pressure area to remain embedded in the trough and fizzle out over the parts of north India. 

Next 6 days looks fabulous for the plains and whole north India. Some rain deficit places will be covering up and some will fail to do so. Also we are expected another low pressure around 1-2nd October but retreat of monsoon could hamper its rainfall spread. More on that later 

Synopsis 

•Low Pressure embedded in the monsoon trough

•Monsoon trough with only Northern plains oscillation 

•Western Disturbance around 24-26th September 

Weather Events

Trough & Lpa induced rains to affect western Uttarpradesh, Delhi, N MadhyaPradesh, NE Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and adjoining areas. Showers and thunderstorms to form the the east and move NW wards, covering 50-90% of the areas. Producing varying in intensity rains and loud lightning strikes along with gusty winds.

22nd September: Showers are expected to remain weak to mild until afternoon. New clouds to form over parts of Central Haryana, adj S Punjab, extreme western Uttarpradesh and move NW-W wards. Showers will be organised but with breaks, the areas they would cover will 40-70% . Another spell to form in the lower SouthEastern Ncr, Ghaziabad, Aligarh, Bulandshahr are their neighbours areas belt by afternoon. Both belts are likely to strengthen by afternoon and cover atleast 60-90% of the plains. (Accumulation 5-60MM) 

23rd September: Same as 22nd but the LPA lies N MadhyaPradesh and adj S Haryana. Rainfall activities to enhance over the plains with first widespread spell starting over w UttarPradesh and slowly cover Delhi, Ncr, Ghaziabad, Parts of Haryana, Punjab. The spell would cause some commute inconvenience in the NCR region as rains and tstorms are expected during early morning. More patchy spells to continue forming throughout the day (Accumulation 10-110MM)

24th September: The Low lies close to NCR, the Convective belt would shift over to the parts of NW Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and adj areas, these areas would receive widespread rains though NCR would receive scattered showers 

25th September: Weakening low and the trough would interact with a WD approaching North Himalayas. This would enhance the activities and could produce some showers accumulating more than 90mm of rain in one go, strong thunderstorms and gusty winds upto 70km/h likely. Effect of these system would be more on Haryana. Punjab, W UttarPradesh, Foothills, Chandigarh, Patiala, Tricity and some parts of Delhi and NCR and N Rajasthan. [Ncr action doesn’t looks so great as the system lies over Haryana]

26th September: Same as 25th September. Little higher probability for NCR 

27th September: All 3 systems to more towards the East, heavy rains for the western Uttarpradesh, foothills and parts adj areas.

28th September: Acts to shift more east. Good chances for Uttarpradesh and adj hills

⚠️Cloud Burst and heavy rains resulting in localised floods likely at some places in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the foothills b/w 22-28. (Higher risk during 25-27) 

•Light snowfall to occur at higher reaches of Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal and Leh.

Wx events and what to expect 

•Dark storm front clouds to bring gusty winds upto 40-80km/h then followed by rains

•Localised Intense rains 

•Strong Lightning strikes

•Waterlogging at places

•Spells of drizzles 

Next update regarding monsoon retreat would be released on 25th September