Monsoon outlook for August 2022

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First half of the monsoon season 2022 has completed. Many places recorded good rains where as some even saw floods, some saw okay-ish rains and some remained almost dry as they reported large deficits.

Speaking of sector wise. Western India out performed expectations. East India still reports large deficits as earlier said this region is expected to perform poor for 2nd half too as moderate-IOD conditions prevails and constantly developing in negative. North India performed somewhat okay-ish and same goes for Southern India on the other hand Central India performed good. 

2nd half of the 4 month long season looks pretty similar with some variations

East India: 
Still we expect East India along with NorthEast India to witness below average rainfall as Axis of Monsoon trough is expected to remain south of its actual position and mild -IOD conditions to enhance the rainfall activities over and around the trough.

•Places like Bihar, Parts of E UttarPradesh, Jharkhand and adjoining areas to see good rains and some flood prone areas area expected to be in their normal face (waterlogged/flooded). Still not much heavy rains but still okay-ish

•On going scattered rainfall activities to reduce from E India as monsoon trough is again going to shift down south. The trough shifted back up north last week and increase the rainfall. Likely to become dry with isolated rains by 10-12thAugust. 

North India:
There were some strong spells mostly concentrated towards Punjab, Haryana and adjoining foothills and parts of NW U.P and N Rajasthan. Delhi and Ncr and other places witnessed normal rains though activities were scattered and patchy with very few widespread activities. Overall a okay-okay 1st half.  

•2nd Phase looks good as there will be more northern shifts in the monsoon trough and overall good synoptic suggesting better days but still same as compared to July with better spells

•First spell of August is expected by 4-6th as MT to oscillate south and good atmospheric dynamics to support more strong spells.

South India:
1st half was pretty near average with places towards north witness more rains.
Expected more good rains as the monsoon surges to stay below MT and northward propagation of MISO (Monsoon intra season oscillation) to bring some strong convergence thunderstorms and heavy rains starting 1st August. Conditions looks conducive for heavy rains and some flooding at some places.

West & Central India:
Many places like W-S-C Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and many neighbouring places witnessed heavy rains and flood. Expecting the same for August as well.

Dynamics 

•Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Negative, Favourable for central, western and northern parts. Vortexes to form below the MT

•Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO): Active and is to move from Phase 1 to 4 or 5, 60° Latitude to 120° Latitude. 

•Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO): Active, Propagating northward

•LaNina: Weak, Weak-Mild effects are still present in both ocean and the atmosphere

•Rossby wave: Active, traversing across

Inshort August looks superb, lets see how the monsoon and rainfall pattern gonna be. 

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