SW Monsoon 2022 is about to arrive in North India ⛈
North India was mainly dry & humid. High temperature combined with moisture increases apparently temperature. The air temperature range was Max: 40-42/43°C & Humidity levels were 30-45% during the day & it used increase after sunset. Overall Feels like temperature used to in range of 47-53°C across many places.
•There was some short lived, ineffective isolated rain clouds popups in parts of foothills and parts of North, Central India
•Easterly winds kept flooding the plains with moisture which in return increased humidity and increased real feel temperature, without any major weather system in the vicinity easterlies alone failed to produce any strong clouds.
Now the conditions are getting favourable for Monsoon onset and good heavy rains in the north.
This blog contains several parts. Make sure you read all of them for proper understanding
Weather Parameters and Dynamics
•East-West Trough which was prevailing in the Indo Gangetic Plain from past few weeks is expected to become monsoon trough and it is near the foothills and soon it’ll shift down. Eastern side of the trough has already become monsoon trough but whole system become monsoon trough once monsoon has made onset over North India.
•Upper level, 200-250 HPA winds are from East/NorthEast side which are carrying high level cirrus clouds from decayed systems In Central & Eastern UP to parts of North India
•Surface Easterlies/SouthEasterly winds are already blowing over a large extent of North India. Filling the plains with moisture. These winds are changed to Southwestly/Westerly for sometime in the parts of Western Rajasthan and neighbouring places as Monsoon trough is near the foothills
•500-700 Hpa winds are blowing from North/NorthWestern side over majority of North India, the reason why pre-monsoon acts are moving NW-SE wards. Soon they will change to Easterly/SouthEasterly in upcoming 24-36hrs (30 June-1 July)
•A Cyclonic Circulation over the eastern UttarPradesh & Neighbouring places will intensify into a Low Pressure area by late 30th-1st July and the LPA system will moving along the axis of monsoon trough. SouthEast to NorthWest. It core movement depends on the position of the trough
•Another Low Pressure area will develop over the parts of East India and its movement depend on the position of the monsoon trough
•Overall all parameters looks favourable for further advancement of Monsoon into North India. The rainfall accumulation depends on the position of the above mentioned dynamics. Monsoon dynamics changes every hour so long term forecasts comes with error margin of +/-10-40% accuracy
Monsoon Onset Dates & Outlook
Parts of western Uttarpradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Ghaziabad, MadhyaPradesh on: 30 June - 1 July
Remaining parts of Haryana, Western UttarPradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Jammu and kashmir on 1 July- 2 July
Other parts of Punjab, Rajasthan 2 July - 5 July
•Error margin +/- 1-3 Days
•Monsoon 2022 is expected cover whole Indian Mainland by 6th July
Weather events and Rainfall spread
Delhi & Ncr: Chances of Scattered light to moderate rains from evening of 29th June. Good chances for Moderate to Intense rains from 30th June also Window for monsoon onset opens though onset could be a weaker one but high chances for Moderate to Heavy rains between 30th June - 2nd July. Spells will be strong and heavy ones. Accumulation would be anywhere between 40-70mm and 80-140mm but the overall quantum depends on the position of the Axis Monsoon Trough and Low Pressure Area.
On/off isolated showers to continue after the major spell.
Risk⚠️: Water logging, Strong Lightning strikes and loud thunder
UttarPradesh: Eastern and Central U.P likely to receive Scattered heavy burst of Rain with strong short lived thunder and lightning from 28th June. More heavy between 29-30th June. Accumulation would be anywhere between 50-90mm, more towards the foothills 100-150mm
Trough will continue to oscillate across U.P and the CC which will intensify into a LPA will be responsible for heavy rains
Moderate to Intense burst of Rain are expected in parts of Western Uttarpradesh from late 29th June. Accumulation depends on the position of the LPA & Trough system.
Isolated intense thunderstorm spells are expected between 29 June till 1 July, Reduction from night of 2nd July. Isolated localised showers after the spells
Haryana & Punjab: Rainfall quantum will be 30-80mm/100m at places. Rains will start in parts of Eastern Haryana and Eastern Punjab from 30th June. Mostly Light-Moderate spell but there will be one or two heavy spells. Peak intensity 30 June till 3 July. Rainfall will be more in the parts of Haryana than Punjab.
Rajasthan: Eastern Rajasthan and Central and parts of Southern Rajasthan are likely to be more lucky as compared to North and West. LPA trough system will have more impact over the eastern side as compared to western one. Rainfall would be anywhere between 10-80mm. Eastern sides could see 70-120mm spells between 1st July till 3rd July.
Good rains are expected in the parts of western Rajasthan from 1st/2nd July till 5th July If the system dips more south. Else back to miss hit spells
Northern parts could miss the action but slight chances are there.
Another LPA is set to affect the Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh and neighbouring places from 6th July till 10th July. Again all depends on the axis of monsoon trough and the LPA system
Hills: Monsoon is slowly progressing into the remaining parts of Jammu and Kashmir. All the places such as Jammu, Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh to get moderate to heavy rains ranging anywhere between 21-50mm/80-150mm and few places above 150mm between 28th June till 3rd July.
Some places will be again in miss hit club. Waterlogging possible at many places with streams overflowing for short amount of time.
Overall take on the forecast and spell
•Activities will be trough induced and have the potential of pouring huge amount of rain in small time during
•Many places can miss the spells as clouds form quickly and they are huge during this time and can hinder the other formations but majority of rainfall is in and around the monsoon trough
•Strong Thunderstorm is expected, loud and strong lightning likely
•Overall 5 Day accumulation will be more at some places. In the blog we are talking about 1 spell accumulation. Overall standings will be above 100mm at many places
•Monsoon onset is said to be weaker as rainfall will be scattered at the time of onset but if we look at other factors then we can say a strong onset, though onset intensity will vary from place to place
•Mostly early morning- night formations. Random formations at some places
•Rainfall will occur in burst mode and on/off pattern
•Spells will be covering 45+80% area but still we can say scattered rains spells as there will be new clouds behind those spells.
•Overall expected 5 day accumulation is 40-100mm and 120-180mm at some places
•Monsoon dynamics are tricky and they changes quickly and they fool weather models so our forecast comes with 10-40% accuracy error margin
⚠️Risk from this event⚠️
•Waterlogging
•Commute and power disruption at places
•Powerful lightning strikes, Seek shelter when you hear thunderstorms in the vicinity
•Overflowing drains and streams near the foothills and some parts of the plains
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