Good spread pre-monsoon rains and relief from heatwave anticipated in North India (21st-24th May)

 

Scroll down for new update (2)

Plains of India were continuously observing heatwave conditions since end of March, some places even saw record breaking heatwave conditions and recorded 47-49°C.

There was isolated light to moderate activities under influence of weak WDs but the plains hadn't witness any decent spell

Relief from heatwave and much awaited widespread & decent intensity rains are set to arrive in Northwestern plains of India

Weather synopsis

 

●Back to back two active WDs  (Western Disturbance)

●Induced CC (Cyclonic circulation)

●Weak trough 

● Adequate moisture supply, i.e WD moisture, Moist Southwesterlies winds from Arabian sea & Moisture laden Easterlies from Bay of Bengal  

Action of these systems and sync 

● A moderate WD is set to affect the plains from 20st May with its weak CC. this system will produce some scattered rains and hailstorm between 20-22nd May. but the wd system will arrive over the hills on 21st

● Another WD will affect the northwestern plains from 23rd May and this will be a active WD and it will have a strong induced cyclonic circulation (CC). This system is expected to produce fairly widespread rain and this spell have the potential to become strongest spell of this pre-monsoon season

● A weak trough was passing through the plain from past few days will become slightly active as the active WD arrives over hills and its strong induce CC forms over Punjab & adj bordering Pak. All these system will get connected together b/w 23rd-25th 

Weather forecast and effects

● Forecast for 20th May: Isolated scattered thunderstorms and duststorm to form in and around Haryana, Delhi, W Uttarpradesh by late afternoon. Day will remain hot and humid with max temp in range of 43-46°C. Strong dust raising winds to blow in Rajasthan, Gujarat and parts of Haryana. Storms will form in and around the weak trough.

(10-35% areas to be covered)

● Scattered rains in parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand. Light snowfall in higher reaches

(25-405 areas to be covered)

● Forecast for 21st May: There will be a rise in the spread of the activities and day will remain partly cloudy in parts of Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, W Uttarpradesh, E Rajasthan. Prime focus of t-storm acts are expected to be in and around the trough, which is passing through the plains. Mostly in Haryana, NE Rajasthan, Delhi and parts of w up and foothills. Plains to experience good spread duststorm with wind gusts upto 40-80km/h

(35-75% areas to be covered) 

Good spread acts expected over the parts of Hills

(30-60% areas to be covered) 

● Forecast for 22nd May: There will be reduce in overall formations and t-storm activities as the WD system will move away but some isolated storms can be triggered on the trough which is passing through the plains.

20-30% of the areas will be covered

● Temp will decrease by 2-5°C 

● Dusty skies and atmosphere is expected  in Rajasthan and parts of Gujarat.

● Some isolated places can see dust storm too with winds gusting upto 40-60km/h

● Isolated places can receive some light to moderate rains in parts of hills and foothills

Forecast for 23rd May: The D day is here!

● Moderate to intense rain along with duststorm with winds gusting upto 50-90km/h and isolated hailstorm and intense rain is possible in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, N-E Rajasthan, Foothills, W Uttarpradesh.

● Peak activities will occur on this day as all the system will be connected and trough will be slightly active.

● Strong Duststorm with winds gusting upto 60-90km/h and even expected to reach 100km/h in some pockets.

● Rain will soon follow up. after a short break of 2-5 mins and 5-30 mins after the Duststorm, rainfall activities will start

● Light to moderate rain & thunderstorm is possible in 45-80% of the areas

● Moderate to intense rains and strong thunderstorm is possible in 25-50% of the areas

● Isolated hailstorm is possible at many places in northern plains

● A solid drop of 5-9°C is expected in day temperature and drop of around 5-7°C is expected in night temp.

● Hills will get similar activities and upper reaches of Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of   Uttarakhand can get light to moderate snowfall. Some places can get heavy rains

Forecast for 24th May: Similar activities as 23rd May but there will be a reduction in overall intensity and spread but sct storms are expected in the parts of plains 

● Mumbai to remain dry this week with occasional partly cloudy skies. temp will rise but by the end of  May, we expect rainfall acts to knock the door of north Konkan, until then isolated light rain is expected in the pockets. Have to wait for any good meaningful spell 🤞🏻

Update (2)

●Northern plains including Punjab, Haryana, foothills of Himalaya, Tricity, Delhi, Ncr and parts of Western Uttarpradesh saw really good and fairly widespread rainfall and thunderstorm acts as WD and its CC got connected to the prevailing trough and flow of full fledge moisture laden easterlies and abundant heat became a fueling factor which driven this fierce storm across the plains and produces strong thunderstorms overnight

●Now this cloud mass system will move away but new formations will keep on inducing on its Southeastern, Eastern edge, this will allow the system to extend into the parts of Western and central Uttarpradesh, NE Rajasthan, S Haryana and adjoining areas 

●Heat potential will reduce due to rainfall and thunderstorm activities as there is an huge drop in the temperature. Still by late afternoon hours we expect new storm formations in the northern plains. Probably in and around the trough. 

●Chances of Moderate to intense rain along with duststorm and t-storm activities remains Moderate in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, E Rajasthan, Uttarpradesh. (will update through nowcasts)

●Weather is expected to remain cloudy and it will keep on raining with varying intensity along with gusty winds atleast till forenoon in Delhi & Ncr and adjoining areas creating trouble for people who are commuting to their work, traffic jams are likely to happen in some areas